Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in South America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Peru
  • Bolivia
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Ecuador
  • Colombia
  • Argentina
  • Suriname
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Venezuela

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $832,929$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,031,904.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,031,904.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,914$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,699.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,699.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76,409$ on 2020-10-07

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $137,706$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,751.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 131.9)}}\) (asimptote \(141,751.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,192$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,495.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 151.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,495.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,246$ on 2020-10-07

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,000,694$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,282,075.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,282,075.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $148,228$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151,476.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 117.0)}}\) (asimptote \(151,476.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $395,294$ on 2020-10-07

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $474,440$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{436,479.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 106.1)}}\) (asimptote \(436,479.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,090$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,299.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 106.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,299.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,297$ on 2020-10-07

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $143,531$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{163,168.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 134.9)}}\) (asimptote \(163,168.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,743$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,125.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 230.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,125.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,277$ on 2020-10-07

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $877,684$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{941,274.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 155.0)}}\) (asimptote \(941,274.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,180$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,230.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 142.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,230.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76,531$ on 2020-10-07

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $840,915$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,277,337.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 189.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,277,337.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,226$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{362,989.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 297.6)}}\) (asimptote \(362,989.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $147,964$ on 2020-10-07

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,979$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,155.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,155.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 146.2)}}\) (asimptote \(127.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92$ on 2020-10-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Peru recovered 55%
Bolivia recovered 50%
Venezuela recovered 33%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $80,404$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,399.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 168.3)}}\) (asimptote \(95,399.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $671$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{849.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 159.5)}}\) (asimptote \(849.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,202$ on 2020-10-07